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Although we are still a bit far off in the creation of conscious minds in computers, due to the limits in technological development, some have argued that if technological progress continues unhindered, those problems will be surpassed. For the simulation argument, it does not matter the timescale in which humankind will reach a posthuman stage where such a capability will be available <ref name=”1”></ref>.
It is not possible, presently, to set an upper bound limit to the computing power that will be available to future posthuman civilizations. Indeed, such a civilization could even have the capability to convert planets and other astronomical resources into computers with power beyond imagination. A lower bound for computation in a posthuman future is easier to establish, assuming only mechanisms that are already understood. Some authors have suggested a computer system roughly the size of a sugar cube that would perform 1021 10^21 instructions per second, and another with the mass of a planet that could perform 1042 10^42 operations per second <ref name=”1”></ref> <ref name=”6”></ref>.
There are also some estimates regarding the amount of computer power needed to emulate a human mind. One gives a figure of ~1014 10^14 operation per second for the entire brain, and another that is based on the number of synapses and their firing frequency gives a number between ~1016 10^16 to 1017 10^17 operations per second. Beyond these figures, the addition of an environment in a simulation will increase the computing power required. The value of the increase will depend on the scope and granularity of the simulation. To obtain a realistic simulation of human experience it is not required to simulate the universe down to the quantum level (something that could be infeasible unless a radically new physics is discovered). What is necessary is that the simulated humans interact in normal human ways with their simulated environment and do not notice any irregularities. Indeed, according to Bostrom (2003), “a posthuman simulator would have enough computing power to keep track of the detailed belief‐states in all human brains at all times. Therefore, when it saw that a human was about to make an observation of the microscopic world, it could fill in sufficient detail in the simulation in the appropriate domain on an as needed basis. Should any error occur, the director could easily edit the states of any brains that have become aware of an anomaly before it spoils the simulation. Alternatively, the director could skip back a few seconds and rerun the simulation in a way that avoids the problem.” <ref name=”1”></ref>
In conclusion, the main computational cost to create completely realistic simulations seems to be in simulating organic brains down to the neuronal or sub-neuronal level. Since a posthuman civilization may build a great number of very powerful computers capable of running simulations indistinguishable from reality, the computing power available to them is enough to run a huge number of ancestor simulations <ref name=”1”></ref>.
==References==
